阿里入股申通，在快递业掀起一股"巨浪"
近两天，阿里巴巴46.65亿元入股申通的消息在快递业掀起了一股巨浪，让申通成了业内的焦点。3月11日和12日，申通快递连续两个交易日涨停。
阿里巴巴为什么选择入股申通快递呢？
2018年申通快递实现了快速业绩增长。该公司2月27日发布的2018年业绩快报显示，全年实现营业总收入170.4亿元，比上年增长了34.42%；实现营业利润27.24亿元，比上年增长了43.86%；实现利润总额27.47亿元，比上年增长了38.08%；实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润20.45亿元，比上年增长了37.46%；同期基本每股收益1.34元，比上年增长了38.14%；加权平均净资产收益率为26.3%，比上年增加了2.25%。 进入2019年，申通快递的增长势头仍然不减，该公司2月20日发布的2019年1月份经营简报显示，1月份快递服务业务收入为17.26亿元，比上年增长了39.17%；完成业务量5.1亿票，比上年增长了42.96%。快递服务单票收入3.38元，比上年减少了2.31%。
目前，德殷投资持有申通快递53.76%的股份，据公告显示，德殷投资拟新设两家与其处于同一控制下的子公司：新公司A与新公司B。德殷投资将以其持有的申通快递股份出资或转让完成后，新公司A与新公司B将分别持有申通快递29.9%、16.1%的股份。 根据《框架协议》显示，阿里巴巴将通过受让实控人或德殷投资持有的新公司A的股权或者向新公司A增资的方式获得其49%的股权，为此将支付的对价为46.65亿元。 交易完成后，德殷投资在股东结构变更前持有的申通快递53.76%的股份仍由实控人通过德殷投资和新公司控制，申通快递的实控人未发生变化，仍为陈德军和陈小英。
与此同时，阿里巴巴也披露了投资物流行业的初心：1、物流行业是国家经济发展的重要基础设施,阿里巴巴希望通过各方的共同努力,将物流成本从目前的GDP占比16%降低到5%。远低于发达国家,从而提升整个制造业的效率。2、物流行业是新增就业的高发展领域,我们希望在增加就业的同时,增加物流行业的就业幸福感和成就感。3、不断丰富并增强物流行业的生态系统,提升物流行业的智慧能力、技术能力和服务能力,能够联合众多的合作伙伴去推进正在发生的变化和需求,是阿里巴巴的荣幸。
阿里入股多家一线快递上市公司表明阿里乐于见到快递行业保持"相对稳态"。虽然阿里在入股后对于快递公司终端价量竞争的管理影响有限，但判断在阿里进行此次"控盘"后，通达系快递公司间的价格战预期将被缓和。
2019年，在行业增速有望保持20%以上的高景气度背景下，市场份额向上市公司加速集中，快递板块整体估值有望获得修复。
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