现在的实体经济为什么这么困难?
当前实体经济十分困难,是因为我们国家正处于经济转型升级的关口,这个关口过去之后,会带来巨大改变。导致转型期实体经济困难的主要原因有三点:
1、经济模式改变,实体经济需要重新定位。
说白了,就是早期好赚钱,导致过度投资,过度投资带来过度竞争,过度竞争在现在阶段集中爆发,几乎所有产业都处于产能过剩状态,这样大家日子不好过。
但在这个不好过的时候,大型企业比小微企业好过;国营企业比民营企业好过。有一些大型民企也不好过,主要是过度扩张带来的,因为之前的扩张带来的收益给很多民营企业一个错觉,就是“胆大的骑龙骑虎,胆小的骑抱鸡母”,所以他们大肆投资,结果是所有传统产业都过剩,投资越多,死的越快。现在依靠胆大,是没有用的,因为市场已经上升到综合竞争层面。
2、企业税负较重,民企融资较难。
财政部于2018年7月13日举行新闻发布会,发布2018年上半年财政收支情况。1~6月,全国一般公共预算收入104331亿元,同比增长10.6%;全国一般公共预算收入中的税收收入91629亿元,同比增长14.4%。
而同期,GDP增速只有6.8%。财政收入增速远远超过经济增长,说明企业负担加重。这与国家不断减税的战略明显不匹配。在税负加重的时候,民企融资难、融资贵依旧持续。
看看2018年世界500强大排名就知道,中国几乎所有有点儿名气的银行,全部上榜,也就是银行成为中国最吸金的行业。银行吸金多,那么企业的利润就要下降。民企融资难、融资贵集中爆发。
3、居民收入增长跟不上经济增长。
最近几年,用工成本大幅提高。但工人工资,或者说人力成本,在生产成本中占比,依旧偏低。有一份数据显示,在2015年,只有2400万人缴纳个人所得税,换一句话来发达,就是工资高于3500元/月底上班族,只有2400万人。这个比例,相对于数亿农民工来说,几乎可以忽略不计。
也就是用工成本虽然提高,但与经济发展水平相比还是处于低位,因为主要经济增长点成果,被税费给带走了。简单地说,国富民穷成为现实。居民收入占比在GDP中约为40%左右;而发达国家这个数据平均在55%以上。
要改变这种状况,就必须“藏富于民”,让老百姓有钱花、能花钱、敢花钱,那么新一轮经济增长,近在咫尺。这也是我们国家改革进入深水区的核心因素。
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