被高德截流的滴滴,前景不妙
滴滴在一级市场估值已跌破300亿美金,相较去年4月的估值已被腰斩,除了两起恶性事件引发系列危机因素外,高德宣布搅局网约车也占有很大影响,滴滴的“七年之痒”将异常难过!
(一)滴滴的C2C护城河并不够深
滴滴B2C的重资产模式相较主机厂并不具备优势,此处我们就直接将滴滴定义为一家C2C企业,目前滴滴的两大护城河:一是拥有市场垄断地位的运力基础、二是多年积累下来的乘客群体,但这并不够算多深!
打车系统开发的技术含量并不高,产品的同质化严重,司机与乘客端的市场推广才是规模做大做强的关键,而地推的核心就是---资本,看谁更能烧钱,但这并不能成为网约车行业的核心竞争壁垒,也是为何滴滴兼并了快的、Uber后手握90%的市场份额也未能让行业“和平”多久的因素,自2018年初启美团、高德、携程等又纷纷加入混战,与以往“一超多小”行业竞争格局不同的是,由地图导航切入网约车的高德握有更高的流量、更大的成本压缩空间,滴滴面临的挑战显然会超过以往!
(二)高德怎么抄滴滴的后路?
1.四亿MAU平台接入各大网约车公司,截流滴滴app
据Questmobile提供的数据,2018年12月高德地图APP的MAU达4.2亿,滴滴APP为8937万,即便加上微信九宫格&小程序(暂无具体数据)也远远不及前者,从地图导航切入打车服务的高德接入了滴滴、首汽、曹操、AA、嘀嗒、神州等各大第三方网约车公司,非但没增加用户的操作成本反而增加了出行的多样性及便利性,集齐 打车、驾车、公交、骑行、步行等主要的出行方式,更是提供了更多的打车选择,“同时呼叫”本质也是提升了匹配效率。
原本用户对打车软件的转换成本本就很低,最多下载一款app+简单的注册,而接入各大平台后的高德更是降低了转换门槛,久而久之用户并不关心最后打了谁家的车,滴滴app的流量也就加速被高德截流。
2.滴滴的生存,要看阿里的脸色
上文提到滴滴的两大护城河之一是多年积累的乘客群体,在自家app被高德截流后,并不意味着乘客和司机会立马流失,但最终会沦为高德最大的第三方服务公司而已,能赚钱但再难赚到更多的钱,丧失了互联网行业最值钱的资产---流量,滴滴自然也就丧失了除网约车外的其他可变现渠道。
高德截流滴滴,除了能增加支付宝的排他性渗透以赚取佣金外,更是在提升用户的粘性,毕竟4亿高质量的月活用户太过值钱了,除了自身衍生的变现渠道,更能给阿里系app导流。
而滴滴另一大护城河---市场垄断地位的运力基础,护城河不算足够深但也不会短期瓦解,先发优势及90%的市场份额还是设了一定的资本门槛,但长期就不好说了,若滴滴“亲”阿里还能凑活过,若两者合作不愉快,哈啰打ofo的历史估计又会重演,毕竟阿里有自家地图、支付等等资源支持,自建网约车平台成本更具优势(另外两大巨头BT也难有抗衡的优势),佣金抽成只要低于滴滴,就不愁司机招募的问题。
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