对未来的几大神预言,现在正在不断实现
到2030年对未来科技的几个预言:电脑的运算速度与人脑相当、增强现实与虚拟实境…只消1000美元的「人类大脑」到2025年,你只需花1000美元就能买到一台运算速度达到每秒10^16(10,000万亿)次的电脑。这个运算速度与人类大脑相当。万亿-传感器(trillion-sensor)经济「万物互联」(The Internet of Everything,IoE)描绘的是一幅这样的图景:一切都被联结起来,无论是设备、人、程序抑或数据。这个「万联网」将在2025年包含超过一千亿个连接设备,其中每一个都包含不少于一打的数据收集传感器。 「万亿-传感器经济」将推动一场前所未有的数据革命。思科的近期报告估计「万物互联」将创益19万亿美元。理想的知识我们正朝着一个理想的知识世界迈进。有无处不在的传感器收集数据(自动驾驶汽车、卫星系统、无人机、可穿戴设备、摄像机)助力,你可以随时随地知所欲知,并查询数据以获得问题的解答。80亿个「超联」(hyper-connected)人Facebook的icon网页链接服务、SpaceX、谷歌的Project Loon项目、高通和维珍创办的OneWeb公司正计划让地球上每个人都能使用到速度不低于1Mb每秒的网络连接服务。在未来,被互联网覆盖的人口将从30亿增长到80亿,为全球经济增加50亿新消费者。这庞大的人数预示着多达10万亿的新美金涌入全球经济。未来的网络用户不再像我们20年前那样在AOL平台上使用带宽9600bps的调制解调器来上网。他们会使用一个带宽1Mbps的连接器,并通过Google、3D打印云平台、亚马逊网络服务、人工智能,借助Watson系统、众筹、众包或其他方法来使用网络。现有医疗保健体系的分崩离析现有的医疗保健机构将受到新兴商业模式冲击,因为后者将提供水平和效率更高的保健业务。成千的创业公司和今日的数据界巨头(Google、Apple、Microsoft、SAP、IBM等等)将会进入利润丰厚而且聚资达3.8万亿美元的医疗保健行业。他们所采用的崭新的商业模式也将消解、废弃并民主化当今官僚作风明显又低效率的系统。生物传感技术(可穿戴设备)和人工智能将会使我们每一个人成为自己身体健康的CEO。大规模的基因测序和机器学习会使我们能够探明癌症、心脏疾病和神经系统推行性疾病的究竟病因并找到相应的对策。机器人外科医生能够完美地执行每一次外科手术的程序,而且价格低廉、物超所值。每个人都可以在他们需要的时候再生一个心、肝、肺或肾,而不再需要苦等捐献者死去。增强现实与虚拟实境Facebook (Oculus头戴式显示器)、谷歌(Magic Leap可穿戴式增强现实技术)、微软 (Hololens全息眼镜)、索尼、高通、HTC 和其他公司所作的数十亿美元的投资将会带来显示器和用户界面的新时代。你的手机、电脑和电视的屏幕将消失并被眼镜所取代。这种眼镜和当今穿着入时的时尚达人所佩戴的一样有型有款,而不是像Google眼镜那样技术宅感十足。大量的产业将会在这浪潮中被冲击,包括从消费者零售到房地产、教育、旅游、娱乐和其他人们生活中的基础产业。
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