5nm、3nm或将是瓶颈期!难度成本剧增,跟进厂商将屈指可数
大家都知道,厂商在宣传时,通常会宣传产品芯片采用的是多少nm工艺。理论上来说,制程工艺越先进,芯片晶体管集成度越高,核心面积越小,成本越低,而处理器的性能会更强。
此前,台积电、三星宣布了5nm EUV工艺,而消息传来,明年苹果的A14处理器也将用上5nm EUV工艺,再往下就是3nm工艺,然而,其成本也会增长到30美元。如今,全球拥有10nm以下先进工艺的半导体厂商,只有三星、台积电、英特尔。
而三星、台积电的工艺路线图已经规划到了5nm、3nm级别,建厂投资都是巨额的200亿美元级别的。到了这个级别的工艺,摩尔定律似乎也失效了,先进的工艺将造成难度和成本的增加。从16nm到3nm,成本涨到30美元,翻了一倍,显然会导致其售价出奇的高,因此,大部分厂商是无法接受这样的价格的,尽管摩尔定律在一定周期内产品成本会下跌。
根据计算,如果算上设计、研发、流片等各项成本,未来5nm、3nm工艺的芯片成本将无法想象,即使半导体厂商愿意跟进,能够用得起这么先进的工艺厂商也会少之又少,这样一来造成的结果必然是手机产品的成本增加。
未来将要出现的芯片,比如苹果A14、A15,骁龙865、骁龙875、麒麟990、麒麟985等等。大家觉得,未来有哪些厂商会跟进最先进的工艺呢?
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