从躺着赚钱到如今自我救赎，星巴克还会有下一个20年吗
上周五是星巴克入华20周年纪念日，自1999年正式进入中国后，星巴克的白色咖啡杯一度成为小资的代表。但就在同一天，美国证券投资公司高盛下调了星巴克股票评级，由"建议买进"调至"中立"。 甚至有媒体认为，星巴克在中国，很可能会像苹果那样，遭遇惨烈的滑铁卢之战。
1999年1月11日，上午10点，北京中国国际贸易中心，星巴克在中国的首家店铺开业，但当年初到宝地，有着精致西式装修的星巴克，总让收入刚刚脱离温饱线的中国人望而却步。更何况在猪肉不过三、五元一斤的时代，让平头老百姓花19块买一杯卡布奇诺，实在是太难为人了。何况还有本土的奶茶饮品，不管是在口味上还是价格上更加符合中国人的心理。
即便如此，但中国人对咖啡的认识，很大程度上依旧来自星巴克的培育。星巴克将 " 第三空间 " 概念带到中国。然而，不知是文化使然，还是国人脑洞太大，星巴克的咖啡馆在中国逐渐成为一个社交空间，由此出现咖啡的第三层次需求——社交需求。经过前面十多年的市场教育，星巴克开始了凶猛的扩展模式。根据星巴克财报显示，中国星巴克门店从2013年开始进入快速增长期，从700家，到现在的3600家。
2015年以来，中国的房租和人力成本上升，星巴克的运营成本不断增加。此时星巴克选择培育市场并未在价格方面进行调整，所以利润空间逐渐缩小。利润率从2015年开始下降到20%左右，虽然同店销售额仍然可以保持每年6%以上的增长，但是一进入2018年开始连续下滑，2018年第一季度仅保持5%的增长，第二季度不到4%的增长，而第三季度竟是负增长。这是星巴克9年来的第一次负增长，中国市场成为全球表现最差的市场，同样利润率也下降显著。
去年瑞幸刚刚崭露头角时，被蹭了热度的星巴克可能怎么也没有想到，其扩张速度会是自己的好几倍。而连咖啡这个从前为他跑腿的平台，也在一夜之间自立门户，拿到上亿的投资。更别提密密麻麻的麦咖啡、便利店咖啡了。也许咖啡行业也会出现一次"大战"，但星巴克的未来如何，我们不得而知，但是我们能够看到，星巴克也在努力的活下去。
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