李开复：未来十年消失概率最小的十种职业
许多经济学家、技术专家和未来学家，包括我本人在内，深深地对未来感到忧虑。
我认为人工智能的四波浪潮席卷了全球经济，它们有潜力撬开更大的贫富差距，引起大范围的技术性失业。
未来由技术导致的财富与阶层上的悬殊可能演变为更深刻的裂痕：撕裂社会结构、挑战我们的人格尊严。
人工智能对于商业来说是一个异常强大的工具。
经济学家预测，到2030年，人工智能将为全球经济带来15.7万亿美元的财富。很多收益来自自动化取代大量人工的工作。
由此引发的裁员对所有劳动者都一视同仁，给高学历白领职工和许多体力劳动者带来同样的巨大打击。
当人类与运算能力超过人脑的机器竞争时，大学本科学历甚至是高度专业化的研究生学位都不再是工作的保障。
我相信，人工智能很快会成为下一个GPT（通用技术，General Purpose Technologies），刺激经济生产甚至促进社会组织变革。
人工智能革命会达到工业革命的规模，甚至规模会更大，速度会更快。
这些变革会比之前的经济革命更广泛。蒸汽动力从根本上改变了体力劳动的性质，ICT(信息通讯技术，Information and Communication Technology)从根本上改变了某些类型的认知劳动，人工智能则会同时影响这两者。
人工智能会以远超人类的速度和力量执行多种类型的体力和智力任务，大大提升运输、制造、医学等各个方面的生产力。
我相信我们可以确定以下几件事。
第一，在工业时代，新技术带来了长期就业机会增长和工资水平的增长。第二，新的GPT依然很罕见且重要，应单独评估各个GPT对于就业的影响。第三，在被广泛认可的三个GPT中，蒸汽动力和电气化同时推动了生产力和就业率提高，ICT提高了生产力却不一定增加就业。第四，人工智能也会是一种GPT，它偏重技能，应用速度快，这两个特性表明人工智能会对就业和收入分配产生不利影响。
如果上述论据正确，那接下来的问题就很清楚了：哪些工作会受到冲击？情况究竟有多糟？
我根据牛津大学、麦肯锡、普华永道、创新工场研究报告综合整理了365种人类工作的消亡概率。
篇幅所限，本文选载了前十名和后十名，供读者参考。
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