号称打败星巴克，如今被质疑为下一个OFO
今年，星巴克在国内市场遭遇了滑铁卢，业绩首次下滑，单店的销售额也下滑了。而一个主要原因则被归结为瑞幸咖啡一样的互联网品牌的冲击。
很久之前就写过关于这批互联网咖啡的文章，不过大家当时都认为星巴克是坚不可摧的，所以没有引起什么共鸣。直到星巴克公布了自己的财务报告，而且自己也开始送外卖了，才有越来越多的人让我来继续说说这个话题。
一个行业能否成长，我首先看是否存在真正的需求。很明显，咖啡市场最低端的速溶，然后到灌装，这都是走超市便利店路线的。而现磨咖啡则之前主要是星巴克这类的咖啡店，定价则在35元左右，其中店面的成本很高，所星巴克的定位也是“第三空间”。
而这之间，则存在不需要豪华装修的纯粹现磨咖啡市场。作为成瘾性的物质，一旦喝上了，市场空间比较稳定。所以这几年便利店、KFC、面包店都开始卖现磨咖啡了，定价大约在15左右。
瑞幸我也喝了有几百杯了，首先从味道上来说，并不觉得比星巴克差，反正我也没觉得星巴克有多好喝，身边喝过的大多也是这个评价。毕竟都是机器做的，主要看豆子的质量了。
所以，理论上面包店15元的成本能够赚钱，那么互联网咖啡则在这个价位附近应该能够实现盈利。目前互联网咖啡处于扩张期，原价24元左右的咖啡一般在12元可以买到，再加上6元的外送费，则消费者成本是18元。这是大多数人可以接受的一个价格。笔者认为，如果未来加上外送费能把售价控制在20元左右，都是有需求的，重要的是这个价格能否实现盈利，这就要看供应、物流和成本管理的能力了。如果不能把成本控制在这个水平，那么将非常艰难。
瑞幸刚公布了自己的业绩，亏损了9个亿。很多人认为这是下一个OFO，也是泡沫。二者的区别就在于是否存在真实的需求。共享单车永远只能在个别区域有真实需求，可以实现盈利，但咖啡不一样。
现在星巴克也送外卖了，但是和店面一样的售价，还加外卖费，这跟自己的定位“第三空间”完全是背道而驰的。要么降低售价，这和店面销售冲突，要么只能被其他品牌蚕食掉这一块市场。
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